Saint Patrick’s Day is the only cultural event that perennially lands in March. Since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.27% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend) and a gain of 0.04% the day after. S&P 500 median values are 0.23% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.03% on the day after. More recently since 1994, Saint Patrick’s Day market performance has been improving. S&P 500 has been up 21 times in 28 years with an average gain of 0.75%.
In the ten years, since 1950, when St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Thursday, like this year, S&P 500 gains have been fair, up only seven times with an average gain of 0.38%. Friday’s have also been positive seven times, but with an average gain of 0.15%.
This year, St. Patrick’s Day is also the day after a Fed meeting where they are expected to begin a new interest rate increase cycle. Comments made following the meeting along with changes to their Summary of Economic projections are likely to have an impact on the market. Provided there are no major surprises, the impact could be positive as the market may finally receive some clarity on rates and the Fed’s considerable balance sheet.